Future in Chaos: Will Timor-Leste be a Tropical Singapore in 2030?

There is a growing gap and disagreement among politicians, academia and civil society on the current available development plan and patterns in Timor-Leste. The Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030 seeming like as uncontested political economic project, in which desired to reach a middle income country by 2030. But the discourse over the nation future economic level always tied to Singapore as an central preference. Those smart city-state has been serve as a role-model where since the government of Timor-Leste launched this comprehensive development plan in 2011, and what come followed was optimism discourse from the government side that Timor-Leste would transform it’s poorer face into 2030.

New building of Ministry of Finance,  GovTL. 

The SDP 2011-30 was the core formative and development concept of National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction(CNRT party) lead government in 2007 until 2015, and after the insertion of an inclusive government lead by Revolutionary Front for an Independent Timor-Leste (FRETILIN party) cadre into the head of government, the Prime Minister  Rui Maria de Araujo regularly emphasizes in every occasion which related to country future development and economic outlook based on these assumption, for instance that during the Prime Minister address the issues of SDGs and National Priority in Faculty of Social Science, UNTL campus and the first Global Conference on the 2030 Agenda that to be held in 22 May 2017, which still emphasize the ideas to achieve a middle income country in 2030 and Singapore as the possible reflections.

Serious opposition now come from the academia and civil society, as opposition among FRETILIN and CNRT in parliament ended up and CNRT terminated the coalition with Democrat Party(PD) in 2015. According to Charles Scheiner, a lead researcher from Lao Hamutuk NGO, a  Dili-based transparency and development observer group, addressed during the 6th TLSA Conference in 28-29 June,  in which after a feasible observation on past 5 years national development trends which focused on infra-structure and mega-projects are the signals of unsustainable economic development in Timor-Leste.

Perhaps during and even now, the former president of RDTL 2012-2016, Mr. Taur Matan Ruak also criticize the government stance where he solely in opposition and claimed that, Government of Timor-Leste required to investing more on human capital development in order to reach those targets despite of focusing more on infra-structure such as highway, international airport and mega-projects such as South Coast Project which comprised of Suai Supply base, Betano Petrochemical and Refinery and Beaco LNG plant in South part of Timor-Leste or Especial Zone of Social Market Economy (ZEESM) in Oecusse Special Autonomy Region.

The current state-budget investment on mega-project rised a questions and possible lead Timor-Leste into a stake, and academia such as Antero da Silva from National University of Timor-Leste(UNTL) noted that it is difficult to promote a people-centered development while government look up to the other and there is a way forward to a “curse of resource”, according to an activist and researcher of Lao Hamutuk NGO, Juvinal Dias. He emphasized this as the Government of Timor-Leste plan to raise more the state budget from 2017-2021 on mega-projects as mentioned including to the expansion of Dili airport, and as the most oil-gas depended country, Timor-Leste oil revenue continually decrease in which, Bayu Undan oil-gas field almost depleted, Greater Sunrise oil-gas exploration become stalled and the future uncertainty of delimitation of maritime boundary with Australia which affected the future oil-gas exploration on the Timor sea and national GDP.

The use of Singapore as prime reference are likely to bring the tiny island into a crossroad but without a clear direction and prospect. A serious debate on national level had been evolve, moreover on the current legislative elections atmosphere, it became so intensified and crucial. Those two state are totally different for most circumstance, in particular the triangular relation among state, people and market. There are growing separation among state-building and nation-building in Timor-Leste’s national development process since it’s inception as state sovereignty. Unlike Singapore which focused on human development at the early beginning of nation-building platform, while Timor-Leste look over on strong state-institution or critical infrastructure and mega-projects which her national leader believe that it could bolster the future economic activity and development.

This running in opposite line, as Singapore positioned as traditional regional and global economic hub while the giving proximity location of Timor-Leste which relative far from the center of regional economic gravity and disadvantage geographical nature of Timor-Leste has a pervasive implications particularly on the explosion of young people and how to accommodate those dominant age structure into a national development process while majority of them are unskilled.

This raise a questions on how Timor-Leste could be the next hub of regional economic connectivity as proposed from the two most ambitious mega-projects in Timor-Leste such as South Coast Project and ZEESM in which the latter aimed to transform Timor-Leste economic landscape onto the investment and service-driven economy?
While the binary opposition possible occurs, if it compared with Singapore. Despite of semi-authoritarian, this globally competitive small state granted the collective economic rights including to guarantee the social protection while sacrificing some forms of freedom but this differs with Timor-Leste where favored more on individual rights and liberty while sacrificing the social protection and economic rights and possible to extent into an economic authoritarian state on the next coming decade.

Despite of it’s rapid economy growth, the island still can faces a peril in the future that difficult to make those government claims become possible. While desired to an inclusive development remain dormant. The actual public perceptions on development merely on the level of infra-structure build-up but the pressures to be more people-oriented development are continually make from diverse actors and spread nationwide and it will continually to be placed among the two binary function of ethics of development and liberal development in a one contested situation from now on.