Trump's Time: A Possible Great Acceleration decline of US World hegemony?

By: Fernando Ximenes

Source of image : popularresistance.org

During a centuries, there have been a rise and fall of empires, it still constant for a millennia, traced from the Roman Imperial, Mongol(13-14 Centuries), Ming China (1364-1644), to the rise of European monarchies empire and the succession of American global hegemony since 1945. All of that evolving and transforming imperial with its key events has dramatically influences to the course of international order and the modern world that we perceive today. 

At the other, Eurasian landmass, is a center of world history as well as traditional battlefield of great power bid to a global power status. During the pre-renaissance, those geopolitical domain are dominated by the unique superpower, a Rome challenged by several Near Eastern monarchies (now Middle East) or coalition of forces, Parthia and Persia. European transoceanic are challenged by the Ottoman rules in Middle East and American in it’s new world order by the Soviet to the nationalist in Third world and aspiring world power such as China and middle power Iran and North Korea during the first Two decades of 21st century. 

Now, the course on changing international order are taking on the process,  America has taken it part as an imperial power since interwar period, drawing and define the rules global system based on its own imperialist and capitalistic values and interest. It introduces an unprecedented model that none of previous empire has acquired. But since its rise in 1945 toward a unipolar moment during the 1990s, now it seem to go back following by the emerge of several new universalist of economic power like China and Russia. Is America’s power remain absolute, relative or continuing growth? So the questions is on what circumstance could be considered that it was a signal to America prefaces to decline or how powerful is America? 

This is a timely article, which the author will focused on Trump rise in power and how it’s policies could affects American roles as a superpower and position in the world that there are several agreed on Trump rise that possible could lead to the fall of American world domination.

Why no such an perpetual imperial?

It will be better to look back and articulate the past key events and speculate the matter of present for tomorrow, at least we are trying to speculate about the future, although the matters on how to predict the fall of the empire is notoriously hard. However that, the rise of Trump on American first state position has become a tragic and alarming for the Western world. Started with demonstration held during the inauguration that demanding for president impeachment, fires America’s most critical intelligence community, launch a several critics for media and hindered the US traditional allies and key strategic partners around the globe. Trump rise has been defined in a broad and varieties way, some are neo and economic nationalist, a populist, a real patterns of corporatism government or whatever it is, America under Trump would make the world more insecure and back to the model of great power system since European world expansion but in condition it will lead to the gradual downturn of American power. It sounds optimistic but the historical law would serve as an intellectual endeavor in this judgmental article.

The rise of Trump is a result for a long functions imperial machinery, where the big state shared a big responsibility on maintaining and restore international order so that it can well moving ahead it’s own imperial agenda. It is the consequence for every great power, and the difference is, America under Trump is likely as what described by Friedrich Nietzsche that, 

“He who fights too long against dragons becomes a dragon himself; and if you gaze too long into the abyss, the abyss will gaze into you”

By another words, America has committing to injects all of it’s power since the end of interwar period in order to secure what is the long term vision of such an imperial, from containment against Soviet to the 21st global coalition on war on terrorism, and since there, America has actively promote an internationalist neoliberal capitalist view where in the meantime, America has turn to be a more illiberal and undemocratic in which the core values such as democracy is failed to implement for both in America and in abroad.

As insightful works, comprehensive study and a light of introduction provide by Paul Kennedy in 1988, for the nature and evolution of great power relation and how military playing a pivotal role on national economy, stated:

“too large a proportion of the state’s resources is diverted from wealth creation and allocated instead to military purposes, then that is likely to lead to a weakening of national power over the longer term”.

Trump administration are committed to increase the defense budget where the new administration proposed around $640 Billion for 2018 fiscal and places it to the top most militarized nation in the planet and has surpassed top US militarized presidents such as Nixon, Reagen, Bush and Obama, and this critical turning point are lead to what described a security state. 

At the other, America playing in the middle of the sideline, it already become a dilemma, while the sounds to accommodate the rising powers to the middle power must be taken, and the increasingly agents on international affairs that appears in multiple ways need to recognize and to be heard. Those are all the consequences from American grand strategy and the evolution of state's nature for power struggle on the other hand. And too much efforts on building and strengthen both military capabilities for economic wealth to secure that there is no one can challenges imperial agenda would likely to threaten American long term vision as an imperial. As it happens for Roman and Ming that leading to national division and the latter are trapped on civil war, and European First and Second world war were described in another way that as an efforts to build and acquire national wealth from the military purpose and the last European landmass imperial such as Soviet Union failed to rivalry it’s opponent due to it’s large military spending. 

Whether it will be endure or will running on same as the former world imperial, where the simple way to distinguish American model of imperialism is dictated on it’s scope of power, where some scholar defined it as hyper-superpower based on it’s own values and power to influences that globally, differs with the Roman, British and potential future superpower such as China, that some of the scholars considered a fragile great power, or more proper words is what termed by Geir Lundestad that America is an invited imperial.

What kind of decline acceleration that Trump will have to US?

Current world system could be best to portrait as uni-multipolar, where every corner of the region has it’s own local dominant power. From China and Japan in East Asia, Israel, Iran and Turky in Middle East, and German and France in Europe, Brazil, South Africa for their respective areas that are increasingly playing a pivotal and independent role more than it does before the beginning of 21st century. 

Most recently Amitav Acharya has emphasize that Trump rise in power is the consequence, not the cause of the crisis and decline of liberal world order and for him, America  world hegemony cannot revive under its ruled. That it is the time of acceleration of American power decline, and a decline that it sources was a curse of military build-up projects. 

This power projection is required a sounds of accommodation to all the aspiring world dominant powers and emerging actor on international politics instead of an unilateralist with military orientation that currently being taken by Trump administration. America imperial decline doesn’t mean America will lost it’s privilege power status as power is limitless, but sharing the power will affects America power scope on global level in respective conditions and it grounded from the financial and security factors that will shape a future political superiority.
 

Very similar with its former Republican that in charge as the president of US, Trump threatened to leave the UN membership and claimed its ineffective and lack of trust as G.W. Bush Jr. in 2001. Trump being neglected over the environmental problems as it grounded on his skeptic view on global climate changes arrangements, he is likely to continuing his predecessor where to strengthen military capabilities was the irreplaceable choices and enforce the ground force in order to conduct GOP most globally campaign, “war on terror”. 

The current situation are totally different with two period of Bush Jr. administration, in which Russia are focusing more on consolidation of internal affairs in order to recover, restore and waited for the right time to reclaim it’s great power status since the decade 1990s struggle to keep Russia outside of the Western folks, now the legacy of cold war has turn to be a real, that Moscow has repeated and proved by it’s war in Ossetia, Georgia and Ukraine. At the other, a rising power such as China, since it take a part of US world economic system with the involvement in WTO and several economic architecture built up by US now has become a real threat on US. Under Donald J, Trump, China has become a serious and presenting more dangerous threat that has been doubts most of the influential scholars during a both presidential periods. 

In this year, signal to us that China will be ended up as the Soviet Union that disintegrate to many small republicans or on the contrary, a prefaces to end American world domination. I argue that the current detente aren’t targeting Russia as Reagen military build-up to tackle Soviet under Gorbachev, current Trump leading detente are intentionally pointed to Beijing that during a last two decades propose an increasingly military, economic and political threat directly to Washington’s globalist imperialistic agenda and aspiration toward to maintain a central American world system. 

At the other situation is that, the world polarization system are not  just drawing by the most powerful state US, or petro-aggresive state like Russia and it’s Eastern partner or leading Asian power like China. This triangle game are complemented by several middle economic and military powers such as Iran, Turky, India and so forth and their role are crucially in determining the current and future international order. The world has filled by so many actors and it present a real complex game that none of great power will be acting and changes the pattern of international order unilaterally. As Trump shifting its full attention for both Syria most recently and to China toward Iran and  North Korea nuke and military provocation at the first month already demonstrate that these countries are very critical to America long imperial journey. Even US has already been experiences it’s decline, particularly during the Nixon administration in 1970s, but current situation are different with the former, for instances, the world oil producers like Iran and Saudi Arabia is likely in favor for the new net of oil importers such as China and this changing and responsive to China energy appetite are looked different with their political stance on US at that time and now in the complex situation in comparable.

Let's move in short of current real situation where in fact that under Trump administration has been making American foreign policy in disarray and it resulting current and future uncertainty for all the corner of the globe. The NAFTA, TPP and future Trans-atlantic alliances for both economic and security has been denied for its critical importance. America new Middle East project must sacrifices its old ways in order to get shapes US long term roles in the Middle East and to keep the fights for this unwinnable conflict. Turky turn it’s back on America in particular case of topple down Assad regime by looking more on US opponent in the region like Russia and Iran for the current political and military disastrous, particularly since US committed to backed Kurdish partition on some part of Iraq, Syria including in Southern Turky to be an unified political sovereignty. 

In another, since Brexit the EU are likely to become such a backward civilian security community, where it require US full commitment in operationalize NATO for EU’s security and defense engagement abroad. And without that, Atlantic strategic collectivization will be divisive, inimical and it’s hard to shrinking the interest of both federalist traditional allies. Beside of current Syria under Trump first air strike, both Syria and Yemen has become a regional conflict that an open international war will be sources from it as it approaches both land and maritime domain in particularly on how to secure the sea and land route and the most controversial is in Syria and North Korea where the conflict and tensions has included the middle and long range ballistic missiles. With these backdrop, showed that US continually defeated, push back and this suffers are contributed to the US vulnerability in terms of geo-strategic contestation of the Middle East and East Asia that US first air strike to Syria and reroutes US warships to tackle North Korea nuke test was the peak of that consequences.

Trump orders strike on Assad airbase, source from indiatimes.com

The Vinson and three guided-missile destroyers and cruisers are now heading toward the Korean Peninsula. source from: nytimes.com

To conclude this, Donald Trump rise in power reminds us on Joseph Nye’s Future of American Power in 1990s, where he totally disagree with the declinist preposition that American power is ephemeral and multipolarity will reemerge. Those in contrasting forecaster now has more relevant arguments about their optimistic explanation over the period where America will be in decline and now it is a time of that strategic decline, unlike Roman that take on reign for 1000 Years without a significant challenges and Europeans for a 400 Centuries but this half century of world hegemony are in declining, and it sources from aggressiveness stance that eventually lead to the national division and another countries to moving preponderance  that could threatening US domination or an outlandish consequences. America global engagement in this unnatural world system has just to make sure that the apolar world system has just to begin in which there is no single predominant power to fill the leadership power vacuum, and soon the bedrock about that there is no such an perpetual imperial based on historical law remain unchangeable.