STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT ON MARITIME BOUNDARY NEGOTIATION

By: Fernando A. T. Ximenes*

Union of Strategic Studies

24 March, 2016.

                                                                                                           

Introduction

After East Timor liberation from Indonesian occupation during 24 years, the Timor Sea has become subject to disputes and new dimension for struggle to attain a full sovereignty as modern nation-state. Australia approach in maritime dispute with it’s north part neighbor had been characterize by state-craft or totally traditional engagement of realism in international relation. Australia overlapping claim over East Timor’s Maritime sovereignty has become an increasingly features of diplomatic and people-to-people relation that has bitten a both relation since regain independence on May 2002. Canberra has shown uncollaborative to initiate the talks, obey the rules and negotiate for the permanent maritime boundary. These had proved at the early times before restoration of independence when Australia decided to refuse from the compulsory jurisdiction of International Court of Justice and UNCLOS on March 2002, then they established a spies operation in Government Cabinets and Australia Secret Service Intelligence robbed a legal documents from East Timor’s Attorney in Canberra.

 East Timor want a fair and just negotiation on Timor Sea Dispute.

Timor Leste has defined nearly a century ago as Australia’s geo-strategic influence most exclusively, trace to the Portugal administration in this country by the establishment of Timor Petroleum Company then Timor Oil Company in Australia at the early of 1930s with its first objective is to dominate and explore the oil in Timor Sea.[1] At the other hand throughout it’s National Defense White Paper that encompass Timor Leste as bypass security threat to Australia offshore.[2] From East Timor point of view to engage in global affairs is dominated by the principle of constructivism due to its lack of political influence, economic dependence and security vulnerability from external actors. As Anthony Smith from APCSS, emphasize that “In fact East Timor is simultaneously a small, weak and new state”.[3] Therefore, Dili tried successfully to establish a Confidence Building Measure(CBMs) with it’s former central government Jakarta throughout the CAVR and its full political commitment to joined the CPLP. But the question is how to deal with maritime boundary dispute just by these dominant approach in East Timor foreign policy, whether it will be maintain or try to look forward into the others. This article will try to responds, examine, explore and to provide policy analysis regarding the role of diplomacy and rest of East Timor political resource to help all the stakeholders in order to put East Timor struggle more in strategic view rather than pragmatist but also to introduce another step to foster the idea of Timorese struggle to determine a certain maritime boundary.

Triangle Diplomacy

Diplomacy is the art of state to conduct its foreign policy by communicate, engage and negotiate to achieve a particular interest. Here I will explore and make some assessment based on my expectation on East Timor relation with key states and organization that will contribute to achieve East Timor interest in order to bring Australia into the round table of negotiations. The key states that will introduce in this view is China based on their friendly relation with East Timor but also Australia’s most principle ally in the Asia Pacific region i.e. United State of America. Differ from these two states, regional forum for peace and security for the wider Asia-Pacific Region like ASEAN Regional Forum is needed to consider it’s critical role for East Timor struggle and to sustain the peace settlement of dispute. Why does East Timor have to choose both countries where there is no legal jurisdiction or direct dispute to involve them? And how ARF will playing a importance role as facilitator or dialogue forum to deal with maritime dispute? Next part will explain these encounter by each position that will use as milestone to achieve in bring Australia into the negotiation as well.

a. United State Of America

Most of Timorese recognize this country as the main driven force to promote high skill of human capital development, democracy and human rights. There is nothing on economic dependence between both states and the adoption of USD as official currency proved more dependence in politically but less economically. Same as Australia, they considering East Timor has had served geo-strategic interest of U.S. in the Asia Pacific Region for the long term period. China rise as the challenger for US maritime power, force US need redefine it’s position in this changing security environment.

On the others, both countries had shown a closer bilateral relation on defense and security matters as achieved by annual Joint military exercise, multilateral military exercises like the CARAT[4] and the establishment of the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) in 2002 that will benefit US Army presence in East Timor territory, the privilege treatment of US Civilian and military to operate in East Timor based on Vienna Convention of Diplomatic Relation and immunity under the supervision of US  law.[5]

With these situation, East Timor need to consider as important resource to force Australia but at the begin Dili need to take it as bargaining zone to convince Washington to involve, calling or at least force Canberra to initiate the negotiation over maritime boundary dispute between both countries. The question is how it should be use or manage these resource to convince an eagle to join for East Timor struggle? For me, U.S. rebalance policy in the Asia Pacific has facing various obstacles and challenges due to dynamic and uncertain political and security situation in the Asia pacific region particularly China’s growing assertiveness in southeast Asia and future US military presence, assistance and security provider in the region. U.S. has a long standing policy to control the Malaca strait that has served as the strategic gateways in linking both the Indian and Pacific ocean. Where John Noer describe this straits are shallow, narrow, and congested... The scenario he made, drawn out this straits close, along an invisible line to the west of Singapore.[6] Control Malaca strait will turn US in the top position to bargain with China in various issues like South China Sea Dispute, Korean Peninsula, East China Sea dispute with Japan and Taiwan Strait then it will favorable for US to contain China as the way to preserve U.S. position as the hegemonic power in international relation. When there is no certain outcome to reach a situation for let it be real, Ombai and Wetar Straits will be turn out as US policy to prevent the expansion of China’s maritime influence. As Jeff Jolliffe in Christian Science Reports that, the Ombai and Wetar Straits rank as the second most important strait after Gribraltar in the world for US defense interest.[7] 
Hence, U.S. need these two international choke-points for further engagement and US navy maneuver more flexible responds. Considering that Indonesia won’t let it happens and the last resort is U.S. must look more into East Timor. That is the reason why US seeks to establish a new military base in Atauro Island in hope for establishment of US strategic checkpoint and the military deterrence posture in the island. US is sensitive with the sphere of SOFA issues into the public discussion and must take into account that in point of US view that they are fear for East Timor as the newest dragon friend in Southeast Asia will moving toward a closest defense cooperation among Dili and Beijing. When East Timor refuse from SOFA, US will lose it’s potential strategic location to prevent China maritime expansion, strategy to deter when the south China sea dispute are turn out into more open conflict between both great powers and to secure the freedom of international navigation.

At the other case, Timorese also need to look into their most influence diplomat in the world, Mr. Ramos Horta, based on his credibility as dialogue promoter and UN leading role for peace operation in the world. Horta had gained a trust from US as independent actor and liberal thinker. Horta will be greeting very well in congress and there is no such place for communist, socialist or US current political opponents. At the level of East Timor’s government, I am sure the congress won’t attract a former prominent figures of Marxist like Xanana and Alkatiri. Based on level of analysis, Congress also has the power as in executive body is, lead by the President. Horta will efforts to convince Congressmen for send a letter of recommendation or with strong call for Australia to start a negotiation with more outlook on fair resolution and respect for international law. Australia behavior toward East Timor will convoke a more unstable political situation and finally will be more costly in term of US and Australia credibility to guarantee a security and stability in the region. We must bear in mind that US declared China’s based preposition on the principle of continental shelf and nine-dashed line in south China sea dispute is out-of-dated or irrelevance with current principle of the UNCLOS.[8] Why don’t East Timor articulate this political argument for their negotiation with US and why do US not saying the same for its ally Australia that has similarly claim as China?

b. People Republic of China

Since the restoration of East Timor independence, China as the first state to establish an official diplomatic relation with East Timor. Both state sharing the same imperative history as occupied and humiliated by western imperialism. The relation is far longer than US, date back to the 13th Dynasty Ming trade expansion in southeast Asia and for searched a precious sandalwood.[9] Currently East Timor dependence on infra-structure materials don’t need to further argue and major Chinese citizens presence as construction labor and trader. At the defense and security matters, the two states not assume a status quo as Timor for America. The question is how do they will engage in East Timor struggle, where China central principle of non-interference still serving to guide Chinese foreign policy at diverse political space?

China’s doctrine as expressed by the term of ‘Core Interest’ had has underlined the need to maintain stability, territorial integrity and economic growth.[10] To achieve these goals, China need to secure its energy security and transporting to mainland and the others China also need to intensifies its economic expansion though the agenda of infra-structure reconstruction. China has trying to improve it’s behavior on international relation and I believe that China will strong reaffirm their position beyond East Timor. As China first objective to established relation with newly nation is to prevent US folks on the island,  from the  US domination on the region and Taiwan influence. China assume seat as the main of five permanent members of UNSC and China will use this body to recommends to ICJ for using its legal advisory but it depends on China political goodwill and lobbies.

Australia approach with East Timor based on bargaining-power styles by not to obey the rules and norms in the whole agreement both had acceded and ratified. Timor Leste also need to engage more in realistic. East Timor need a power, as realist view that weak state need the big state to balancing another strong state on international system. As china political and economic goals that has mentioning above, China need energies and East Timor will supply. China necessity for LNG consumption has increasing during the last decade and East Timor will become new potential exporter where the South Coast Projects(Projeto Tasi Mane) will responds. China oil Companies like PetroChina and CNOOC has proven their enthusiast and accountability over the use of their own capital in financing the oil and gas exploration around the globe and both will cooperate based on mutual benefit in the south coast projects.[11] With the political turmoil around the Middle East particularly it’s major LNG Supplier like Yemen and Qatar has force Beijing to seek a new energies suppliers and this ideia has considered before by Markus Kaim in his book with tittle “Great Powers and Regional Orders: The United States and the Persian Gulf”, he argued that there are three main elements of China Strategy in hunting oil abroad:  (1) broadening the geographical distribution of foreign sources of supply; (2) acquiring equity in the energy sector overseas; and (3) exploiting cross investment opportunities. There are major opportunities for East Timor and political reciprocity will playing to sustain both relation.

 South Coast Project(Projeto Tasi Mane) in Timor-Leste

Back to the way, Australia as the second LNG supplier for China but with the high cost in the Market. As the precondition is East Timor LNG-Beasu and Petrochemical-refinery Betano will capture monetary value or economic prospect for East Timor in future but also in Chinese market and at the same time to competing in energy geopolitics with Australia, argued by President of TIMOR GAP State Enterprise, Mr. Monteiro. With the latter assumption will be far more favorable for the East Timor as added by him and there are time where East Timor already have a sufficient power to force and bargain with Australia in the maritime boundary dispute. China has shown their long interest in the South Coast Project but unclear maritime boundary was prejudiced it. China fear if US will force Australia to conduct an economic coercive though the LNG trade with China for US objective in the south China sea dispute.

At the governments level, Alkatiri and Xanana will be greetings as well in China and it will favorable on chance which the latter Leader is currently lead the group from East Timor to negotiate a maritime boundary with Australia and the former leader is the President of the ZEESM Authority. The case of maritime dispute have a economically and politically cost to East Timor’s current development. East Timor need to secure its source of GDP income and when there is no certain then it will cause unstable political, economic then social disorder was unavoidable situation in future. Based on statistic number of foreign population in East Timor, Chinese is in the second larger reside as workers and trader. China will be difficulty to manage if they return to their homeland just because the instability in East Timor. China need to consider it as important things to their citizens in East Timor as we know the trends over the demographic conflict has increasing every year.

To conclude this puzzle, Timor Leste need to maintain the balance between these two principle states. While preventing the miss perception is more critically for East Timor in managing the relation between these triangle game and to maintain a good relation with Australia and for regional peace and security and looking forward a long term between friends and neighbor.

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*Fernando Ximenes,  is an extensive student of International Relation, at National University of East Timor. The Author also works as volunteer  researcher at Institute of  Peace, Conflict and Social Studies and  the co-founder of Union Strategic Studies, both operated in Dili, Timor Leste. Please contact the auhor via <fernandoximenes87@gmail.com > and official wordpress <https://fxkee.wordpress.com>

[1] Aditjondro, G. J. (1999). Tangan-Tangan Berlumuran Minyak: Politik Minyak di Balik Tragedi Timor Lorosa’e. Indonesia. Solidamor. p.8

[2] Australian Defence White Paper 2013, downloaded from: www.defence.gov.au

[3] Smith A. L. Constraints and Choices: East Timor as a Foreign Policy Actor. New Zealand Journal of Asian Studies 7, 1 (June, 2005): 15-36. Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies. pp.15-16

[4] Parameswaran, P. (2016). US, Cambodian Armies Launch Military Exercise. The Diplomat. http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/us-cambodian-armies-launch-military-exercise/

[5] See from article I-VIII  in non-original Document of Status of Force Agreement Between USA and Timor Leste 2002, Downloaded from: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/208119.pdf

[6] John Noer et.al, Chokepoints: Maritime Economic Concerns in Southeast Asia. National Defence University Press, Washington DC, 1996. pp.44-35

[7] Jae-Hyung, Lee [2002], China and Asia-Pacific Region: Geostrategic Relation and a Return to a Naval Dimension. Department of Politics University of Adelaide. p.138

[8] Philipa Brant [2014] “US State Department assesses China’s nine-dashed line. http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2014/12/08/US-State-Department-assesses-Chinas-nine-dashed-line.aspx

[9] Loro Horta, Timor-Leste The Dragon’s Newest Friend. Discussion Paper n° 4 - Note de recherche n° 4. p.2

[10] Lai, D. (2011). The United States and China in Power Transition. US: Strategic Studies Institute. p.179

[11] Francisco Monteiro, the President of  TIMOR GAP State Entreprise, stated during our conversation in his office in 06 february 2016.